BY ANDY BAGGOT
UWBadgers.com Insider
MADISON, Wis. — Success in the red zone isn't a guarantee of anything in college football.
Just look at Wisconsin.
UW is unbeaten after three games and is ranked in the top 10 depending on which poll — the Associated Press (media) or Amway (coaches) — you hold more valid.
The Badgers — ninth in the Amway ranking and 11th in the AP compilation — have knocked off LSU, Akron and Georgia State despite one of the poorest red zone conversion ratios in the nation.
They rank 110th out of 128 Football Bowl Subdivision teams with an overall success rate of 73.3 percent (11-for-15) from inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
Florida, Utah, Central Michigan and Houston are also 3-0 despite having poorer ratios than Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, the Badgers sit 91st nationally in their ratio of red-zone trips to touchdowns scored at 53.3 percent (8-for-15).
Houston, Utah and fellow unbeaten Stanford are among those with worse outputs.
But while misery loves company, Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst would prefer to remove his club from this odd statistical equation.
His level of annoyance with the red zone numbers was on display Monday during his weekly press conference.
"It drives me nuts," Chryst said.
Bear in mind this is the same guy who had the Badgers converting on 90 percent of red zone trips during the 2009, '10 and '11 seasons when he was offensive coordinator.
Not only did UW rank in the top 10 in conversion percentage during that stretch, its ratio of touchdowns per trip was 72.4 percent in 2009, 80.9 percent in '10 and 85.3 percent in '11.
"You appreciate the points when you can get them, but you have to get touchdowns," Chryst said Monday. "That's an obvious area where we have to get better."
The need is magnified this week as Wisconsin begins Big Ten Conference play with a trip to face eighth-ranked Michigan State, the defending league champion.
The matchup kicks off a stretch in which UW will face three consecutive top-10 opponents, including fourth-rated Michigan on Oct. 1 and second-ranked Ohio State on Oct. 15.
The Badgers have had red-zone malfunctions in every game to date.
In the second quarter against then-No. 5 LSU, senior quarterback Bart Houston had his third-down pass from the 10, intended for redshirt freshman tight end Kyle Penniston, intercepted in the end zone by safety Rickey Jefferson.
The ill-fated throw came one play after junior left tackle Ryan Ramczyk was whistled for a false start penalty.
In the first quarter vs. Akron, senior tailback Corey Clement had a big hole into the end zone from the 1 on fourth down, but he stumbled over the feet of senior tight end Eric Steffes and lost a yard.
In the second quarter vs. Georgia State, redshirt freshman tailback Bradrick Shaw had room off left tackle on third down from the 1, but he had the ball punched loose by inside linebacker Alonzo McGee and safety Bobby Baker recovered.
Later in the second, with the ball at the Georgia State 12 and 4 seconds remaining in the half, junior kicker Rafael Gaglianone punched a 30-yard field goal wide left for his first miss of the season.
Wisconsin has defied the odds by winning all three games, including a pair of fourth-quarter comebacks vs. LSU and Georgia State.
"I don't spend time thinking about the odds," Chryst said. "I do spend a ton of time thinking of how we can be the best we can be and we haven't taken advantage of those opportunities.
"Two of the three games we've played in to this point have been close games. That's part of the reason why they're close."
A variety of factors go into the red-zone struggles.
"A lot of it is based on us fumbling, not making the right reads, not being able to make a play when it comes to us," senior wide receiver Robert Wheelwright said.
"There'll be times where some guys are off or one guy will be off," senior tailback Dare Ogunbowale said. "It's tough to have a successful play when that happens."
The remedies seem relatively simple.
"The focus has to be on us executing and doing the little things," Chryst said.
This red-zone analysis came on a day when three tailbacks — Clement, sophomore Taiwan Deal and redshirt freshman Bradrick Shaw — were listed as questionable on the injury report.
There are also questions about the starting quarterback. Will it be Houston, who started the first three games, or redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook, who came off the bench and calmly sparked a come-from-behind victory over Georgia State?
"Both have to be ready to go," Chryst said.
The Badgers begin conference play — making their first trip to Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, Michigan, since 2011 — knowing they have much to do.
"We can be so much better in certain aspects of the game," said Wheelwright, who shares the team lead with 12 catches for 194 yards. "I feel we haven't hit our peak yet."
Especially in the red zone.
"As time progresses, we will get better," Wheelwright assured.
For reference, UW finished the 2015 season ranked 53rd in FBS in red-zone efficiency (46-for-54, 85.2 percent) and 39th in TDs scored per trip (35-for-54, 64.8).
Chryst left to become head coach at Pittsburgh in 2012. Prior to his return to Madison last season, the Badgers had a red zone success rate of 82.4 in 2012 (Bret Bielema) and consecutive seasons of 86-percent efficiency under Gary Andersen in 2013 and '14.
"Red zone is very important to Coach Chryst," Wheelwright said. "He takes that serious. He loves the red zone and he knows that's where we need to step up. That's something we haven't done good in in the last three games."
Ogunbowale said all starts with focus and execution.
"Guys start doing their job and you'll start seeing more success," he said.
